The Headline Numbers
Ontario employers are holding steady on compensation heading into 2027, according to results from COIRI’s latest quick poll. Based on responses from 157 employers, overall average increases are landing around 3.0% across the board: 3.1% for salaried non-executive staff, 3.2% for executives, and 3.0% for hourly employees.
These numbers are very close to the national picture. Normandin Beaudry’s recent survey puts the countrywide average at 3.1% and Mercer Canada’s July survey landed at 3.0% merit and 3.2% total increase.
Three independent surveys landing so closely in the same range is a good indicator of where the market is going. It also tracks inflation. In August Canada’s CPI was at 3.0%. Budgeting is generally matching the cost of living this year.
The Industry Split
The overall averages tell a story worth noting. Manufacturing outside of automotive is slightly ahead of the curve with salaried workers set to receive an average 3.2% increase, executives at 3.3%, and hourly-paid employees at 3.1%. Non-manufacturing businesses in our poll consisting of transportation, logistics, warehousing, wholesale/retail, and for profit businesses came in slightly lower with an average projected increase of 3.1% for salaried employees and executives, and 3.0% for hourly-paid workers.
The automotive manufacturing and parts sector shows something else. After removing pay freezes and outliers, the projected increases average between 2.5% to 2.6%. Given what the sector has been dealing with this year, this makes sense. The industry which is concentrated heavily in Ontario, has been responding to US tariff pressure and the operational uncertainty that comes with it. As a result, responses indicate a heightened level of caution with their 2027 budget. This is a reasonable response to the specific conditions they’re facing, rather than a sign of trouble across Ontario manufacturing generally.
What This Means for HR Planning
Outside the auto supply chain, budget for something in the 3.0% range. You’ll roughly be matching inflation, and you’ll be in line with most peers. Inside automotive, the range is much wider and freezes are common enough that a flat year isn’t an outlier.
This snapshot matches the data that has been released so far. COIRI’s Clarity platform builds on exactly this kind of data, but with full industry and regional breakouts covering hundreds of positions across the province. We are currently collecting data for our 2027 reports. If you haven’t registered for this year’s questionnairess yet, registration is open, with submissions due in late October. Participate and help shape the outcome of the new Ontario reports. To request a questionnaire package, please register to participate here.